The chances are a lot tighter than that

Ladbrokes put up a market overnight on there being a brokered convention to choose the GOP 2012 nominee for the White House. The opening price was a mouth-watering 20/1

It then soon moved to 16/1 and by the time I became aware of it the price was down to 10/1.

Even though it’s an eventuality that rarely happens it’s being talked about a lot at the moment following South Carolina and the prospect of a Newt Gingrich nomination. Mitt Romney, as we are seeing, is having problems with the broad Republican base while there are many in the party elite who are ultra-concerned about having Newt at the top of the ticket.

Initially they’d been broadly happy to support Mitt but now that his effort is faltering it’s suggested that they’ll try anything to block Newt

There’s a lot of talk of another candidate acceptable to the establishment being promoted but given the timings and the need to complete legal requirements to get on each state ballot it might be hard for such a person to secure enough delegates in time for the convention in August.

The terms of the Ladbrokes bet are simple – that the eventual nominee will be other than Romney/Gingrich/Santorum/Paul. I think the chances of that happening are better than the odds being offered – hence a good value bet.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH