Will ICM back-up the latest YouGov?

Today is January 22nd and the only VI polls that we’ve seen this year have been online – all but one of them from YouGov.

So before rushing to judgement on the latest from YouGov – 41/36/9 – let’s wait till we see if the same trend of a substantial Tory lead is seen in the monthly phone polls that should be due out in the next few days.

If ICM and Ipsos-MORI are following their usual pattern then there should be at least one out this week.

If several pollsters – including the ones with the best records for accuracy – have numbers similar to YouGov then it could make life even harder for the Labour leadership.

In the immediate aftermath of the Brussels veto ICM had 40/34/15 with LAB in even worse position than the latest YouGov. Six days later the pollster’s final survey of 2011 still recorded a blue team lead but only of one point.

There’s little doubt that LAB/Miliband have had an awful start to 2012 and the only non-YouGov poll, the ComRes online one last night, had the Tories up 2 with Labour down 2.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH