The New Hampshire presidential primary emerged as an important milestone on the presidential campaign trail in 1952 when insurgent Democratic US Senator Estes Kefauver took to the snowy byways of the Granite State, challenging incumbent but soon-to-be lameduck President Harry Truman. The Tennessean lost the nomination, but put the New Hampshire primary on the map.

Then in 1976, in the wake of Watergate, another outsider and challenger to the Beltway establishment, Gov Jimmy Carter of Georgia, used the Iowa precinct caucuses to launch his campaign both in the Hawkeye State and in the subsequent New Hampshire primary. Carter went on to win the White House, and the linkage between the Iowa precinct caucuses closely followed by the New Hampshire presidential primary was born. In that bicentennial year of 1976, Iowa voters participating in local public meetings came to a decision that New Hampshire voters casting ballots in a statewide election went on to ratify.

HOWEVER, in the very next cycle emerged the first evidence of the opposite trend: New Hampshire backlash against Iowa. In 1980, George HW Bush narrowly beat Ronald Reagan in the Iowa caucuses. The response by New Hampshire voters was to give the Californian 50% of the GOP primary vote and the Texas Ivy Leaguer just 23%. And while Democrats in both Iowa and New Hampshire held the line together for President Carter against challenger US Sen Edward Kennedy, in 1984 the story was different. That year, the winner of the Iowa precinct caucuses was fellow midwesterner former VP Walter Mondale who was supported by the old guard party establishment, but New Hampshire voters heard the beat of a different drummer, namely Colorado US Senator and ”new” Democrat Gary Hart.

The chart gives the twin capsule histories of the Iowa precinct caucuses and New Hampshire presidential primary from 1988 through 2008. DISCUSS & DEBATE.

During that quarter-century span, Iowa has tended to establish initial standings, with New Hampshire sometime ratifying the Iowa result but more often backlashing against it, though occasionally you can see evidence of both trends at the same time.

Voter participation is variable, caucus process is less encouraging of turnout than primary, but other factors include presence of incumbent president in the race which can have tendency to send voters into the caucuses or primary of the other party.

Note that in Iowa voters may register and change party affiliation at the caucuses, and that while Republican conduct a presidential straw poll, Democrats elect delegates, and presidential results are actually calculated percentage of total Iowa national convention delegation; further note that in NH presidential primary which is divided between Democratic & Republican statewide votes for president AND vice president, some votes are always cast in the Democratic primary for Republican candidates (by registered Dems unable to vote in the GOP primary) and in GOP primary for Democratic candidates (visa versa).