Does the 2012 process make a late entrant more likely?

There’s been a lot of speculation in recent days on some US sites on the possibility that the eventual nominee to face Barack Obama may not be a current runner. There are even suggestions of a brokered convention when a deal is done behind closed doors.

What’s driving this is the fact that both Mitt Romney and the current front-runner in the polls, Newt Gingrich, have very little support from the party establishment.

In fact a Washington Post pundit has gone on record to say that the latter is such an anathema to party bosses that he will be stopped.

On top of that there’s the unique time-table in the 2012 primary programme that would make it easier for a late entrant with lots of party backing to come in. Nate Silver has a good post here.

Names that have been specifically mentioned as possible late entrants are featured in the panel above.

Should punters take this seriously? I’ve certainly got a fair bit tied up in this market and as a covering measure have had a few bets of very small amounts at prices up to 800/1.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH