The 4/7 betting favourite continues to defy the polls

We are less than six weeks away from the point where real voters in real elections in the US start to vote to choose the Republican nominee for next November’s presidential election.

For once those first results in the January 3rd 2012 Iowa caucus start to come in then the whole process will come alive and, if previous elections are anything to go by, change the whole dynamic. Very early on we can expect a number of would-be presidents withdraw from race and we’ll be speculating over where their support will go.

What’s currently interesting from a betting perspective is how the ex-Massachusetts governor, Mitt Romney, is remaining a solid 4/7 odds-favourite when the polling evidence suggests that he’s in second place.

Mitt’s betting position is a bit like David Miliband’s was in late September 2010 in the Labour leadership election.

The polling pointed to a victory by his brother, Ed, yet the elder Miliband stuck rigidly to a price also of about 4/7 right until the penultimate day.

It’s my recall that some of the strongest “it must be David” protagonists are today in the “it must be Mitt” camp.

Just like with Mitt Romney today the received opinion was that this was David’s victory so the evidence was simply ignored. I was arguing furiously here that it was a genuine 50-50 contest yet few were brave enough to defy the markets and take a punt based on the polling.

Ed Miliband, who I’d backed down from 33/1, became my biggest political betting win of all time and I bought a brand new car on the proceeds. I’m hoping to have another big win in the GOP race where I think that Mitt’s chances are no better than evens.

@MikeSmithsonPB