The Democrat party becomes favourite once again

With just one year and one week to go before polling day the sentiment on the Betfair betting exchange, as seen in the chart, is that the Democrats (most probably Obama) are going to hang on to the White House.

It’s going to be a tough fight and the president’s re-election chances might be hampered by efforts in a number of states to make it hard for people to register and to vote early.

The GOP challenge is finding a candidate who can beat Obama. So far the nomination seems to be going to Romney – almost by default – though whether he’s got it in him to mount a successful challenge is hard to say. My instinct is that Perry would be a tougher opponent than the current GOP favourite.

@MikeSmithsonPB