Thanks to YouGov’s Anthony Wells for flagging this up – the National Equivalent Vote calculated by Professors Rallings and Thrasher. The totals are in line with forecasts the pair made in early April.

This based on taken a selection of individual ward results and using a complex formula to produce a nation projection. Note that this includes Scotland and Wales although there were not local elections there on Thursday.

For comparison purposes the 2007 split was CON 38: LAB 26: LD 24.

Mike Smithson