Which party will benefit most?

So the cat is out of the bag as Prince William announces he is to marry Kate Middleton sometime in the spring or summer of next year, but what impact does a Royal Wedding have on the politics of the nation? Since regular polling started in 1946 there have been eight royal weddings (which I class as where members of the Royal Family as defined by Buckingham Palace have married in either a civil, religious or state ceremony) and this is what happened to the polls in the six months that followed:

Her Royal Highness Princess Elizabeth of York and Prince Philip of Greece and Denmark – November 1947
Polls in November 1947: Conservatives 51% Labour 38% Liberals 9% Others 3%
Polls in May 1948: Conservatives 45% (-6%) Labour 41% (+3%) Liberals 11% (+2%) Others 3% (unchanged)

Prince Edward, Duke of Kent married Katharine Worsley – June 1961
Polls in June 1961: Conservatives 43% Labour 40% Liberals 15% Others 2%
Polls in December 1961: Labour 43% (+3%) Conservatives 38% (-5%) Liberals 17% (+2%) Others 2% (unchanged)

Prince Richard, the Duke of Gloucester married Birgitte van Deurs – July 1972
Polls in July 1972: Labour 49% Conservatives 40% Liberals 7% Others 4%
Polls in January 1973: Labour 47% (-2%) Conservatives 38% (-2%) Liberals 12% (+5%) Others 3% (-1%)

Prince Michael George Charles Franklin of Kent married Baroness Marie-Christine von Reibnitz – June 1978
Polls in June 1978: Conservatives 45% Labour 43% Liberals 6% Others 6%
Polls in December 1978: Conservatives 48% (+3%) Labour 42% (-1%) Liberals 6% (unchanged) Others 4% (-2%)

The Prince Charles, Prince of Wales and Lady Diana Frances Spencer – July 1981
Polls in July 1981: Labour 40% Conservatives 30% Alliance 26% Others 4%
Polls in January 1982: Alliance 39% (+13%) Labour 29% (-11%) Conservatives 27% (-3%) Others 5% (+1%)

The Prince Andrew, Duke of York and Sarah Ferguson – July 1986
Polls in July 1986: Labour 38% Conservatives 33% Alliance 27% Others 2%
Polls in January 1987: Conservatives 36% (+3%) Labour 35% (-3%) Alliance 28% (+1%) Others 2% (unchanged)

The Prince Edward, Earl of Wessex and Sophie Rhys-Jones – June 1999
Polls in June 1999: Labour 46% Conservatives 29% Liberal Democrats 19% Others 6%
Polls in December 1999: Labour 48% (+2%) Conservatives 29% (unchanged) Liberal Democrats 17% (-2%) Others 6% (unchanged)

The Prince Charles, Prince of Wales and Camilla Parker Bowles – April 2005
Polls in April 2005: Labour 39% Conservatives 33% Liberal Democrats 21% Others 7%
Polls in October 2005: Labour 36% (-3%) Conservatives 33% (unchanged) Liberal Democrats 22% (+1%) Others 9% (+2%)

Average change six months after a Royal Wedding: Conservatives -1% Labour -2% Liberal Democrats +3% Others unchanged

All of which suggests that by the end of next year (by which time the referendum on the Alternative vote will have been decided and perhaps the future of the coalition as well), it could well be the Liberal Democrats who get a much needed boost in their poll ratings. Could this be that the Lib Dems are seen as the most pro royalty party of the three main parties? We shall have to wait and see.

Note The mug featured above was produced for an earlier “false alarm”.

Harry Hayfield