Poll	Date	CON (%)	LAB (%)	LD (%)
ICM Guardian	29/09/10	35	37	18
ICM/Guardian	15/08/10	37	37	18
ICM/Guardian	25/07/10	38	34	19
ICM/Sunday Telegraph	24/06/10	41	35	16
ICM/Guardian	20/06/10	39	31	21
ICM/Guardian	23/05/10	39	32	21
ICM/Sunday Telegraph	13/05/10	38	33	21

Labour take 2 point lead in first post EdM phone poll

There’s a new ICM poll in the Guardian which once again is showing a very different picture of public opinion from that which we see in the News International daily poll by YouGov.

The shares are with changes on last month CON 35 (-2): LAB 37 (nc): LD 18 (nc).

The Lib Dems will be relieved that the pollster that came top in the general election polling accuracy table should have them at levels which are markedly different from the daily polls. Yes support is down since the 23.6% at the general election but the fall-off in support has apparently been halted.

The Tories might find this worrying – they are two points down on the general election and this is the party’s worse showing from the firm since the election.

Labour will be absolutely delighted.

One interesting point picked up by Julian Glover in his report: “only 50% of Tory supporters want their party to rule alone, while 41% want coalition with the Lib Dems, which suggests Cameron will face little dissent from the grassroots at conference next week.”

One big caveat: polls during the conference season tend to be very much influenced by which party was on most recently. We need to wait for a further month before we get a good gauge of opinion.

Mike Smithson