Votes Cast / Seats Won and Change
Labour 11,694 votes (40.64%) winning 7 seats (unchanged on last time)
Conservatives 8,573 votes (29.79%) winning 5 seats (-3 seats on last time)
Liberal Democrats 4,611 votes (16.02%) winning 4 seats (+2 seats on last time)
SNP 1,382 votes (4.80%) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time)
Greens 822 votes (2.86%) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time)
Independents 700 votes (2.43%) winning 1 seat (+1 seat on last time)
UKIP 451 votes (1.57%) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time)
BNP 244 votes (0.85%) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time)
Others 297 votes (1.03%) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time)

It is now coming up to five months since the general election and over the past five months a clear pattern is emerging in all the local by-elections that have been occuring across the United Kingdom. The Conservatives are dropping from their high water mark in local government over recent years, their coalition partners also falling and Labour picking up about half of that lost support with the other half going to regional and local parties (such as the SNP in Scotland, Plaid in Wales and Greens in places like Brighton and Norwich).

This was of course alluded to in Harriet Harman’s statement at the Labour leadership election announcement. I can only assume she was referring to just Conservative and Labour contested elections, but even when considering all elections Labour are on 32% of the vote, compared to the Conservatives 28% and the Liberal Democrats on 22%.

This represents a swing from Conservative to Labour of 8.5% compared to the average of the national projected share of the vote for 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010 which if repeated at next year’s local elections would see Labour on 32% (+6% on 2007), the Conservatives on 29% (-11%) and the Liberal Democrats on 22% (-4%).

This suggests that not only will Labour be able to take councils from the Conservatives, but that in Scotland and Wales they could well be in a position to retake overall control of the National Assembly and be the main driving force of a minority government (or indeed a multiparty coalition) in the Scottish Parliament.

Changes on last time

Conservatives GAINS: None

Labour GAINS: Worksop South (Bassetlaw) from Con

Liberal Democrat GAINS: Aspartia and Wharrells (Fylde) from Con, Earl’s Court (Kensington and Chelsea) from Con

Others GAINS: Independent GAIN Ayresmore (Middlesborough) from Lab