What should be fair prices for the brothers?
Are the markets right after YouGov?
Precisely one month to go before the ballot papers go out and my reading is that this is a 60-40 battle with the chances at the moment erring slightly more to Dave than to Ed.
The YouGov poll was not quite decisive enough for David – a mood that seems to be prevailing on the betting markets.
I’m not as convinced as some by the theory that Ed will scoop up the non-Mili second preferences. The poll showed that EM was leading by 3-2 here but the effect could be dilluted by the numbers of members who only select a first-class choice.
The big question remains the trade union section and how much regard we should have for the poll numbers. I think Ed will do better here than the poll.
So this is a 60-40 and there’s lots of time for “events”