Would Labour be hurt most? Some interesting YouGov data this evening on how the creation of the coalition has shifted second preference choices – something that could be crucial if AV did come in. Not surprisingly Labour supporters are now less likely to opt for the Lib Dems while the yellows are more favourably disposed to the blues. There are, of course, fewer Lib Dem supporters now compared with the general election. Mike Smithson
How much of the reform programme will get through? Nick Clegg has just made his statement on the electoral reform package which contains a few surprises and some measures that were heavily trailed. Jack Straw responded forcefully for Labour and we saw the first part of his thinking on how they might try to oppose what was in Labour’s manifesto – the commitment to a referendum on AV. This is going to be tricky for Labour The plan is for…
2010 seats with AV AV Actual CONSERVATIVES 282 307 LABOUR 262 258 LIB DEMS 79 57 SNP/PC 8 9 OTH/NI 19 19 Would the new system favour the big two? The table is one of a number of projections that have been made on what the outcome of the 2010 general election would have been if it had been held with the Alternative Vote electoral system. The numbers, from Rawnsley’s piece in the Observer, are based on polling data to…
See story here.
I’ve taken it down because I’m not confident about my interpretation of the figures on which it was based. I’m on holiday and don’t have access to my notes. Apologies. Mike Smithson
Can the ‘no cuts’ line really be sustained? Going in to the election, the Conservatives made a commitment that the NHS and International Development budgets would be protected from any cuts that had to be made should they form a government, a commitment that has carried over into the coalition. To many Conservatives, these didn’t look like the most obvious departments to make the priority. That no doubt was partly the point – to soften the party’s image and to…
Guardian April 30th 2010 The paper stated: “…This time …..the more people who vote Liberal Democrat on 6 May, the greater the chance that this will be Britain’s last general election under a first-past-the-post electoral system which is wholly unsuited to the political needs of a grown-up 21st-century democracy..”
Will 05/05/2011 mark the beginning of the end? The expected announcement today that the referendum on AV is to be scheduled for the same day as the Scottish parliament, Welsh assembly and English local elections produces the prospect of another Super Thursday when the whole country will be going to the polls. What effect will that timing have? The stated aim is to increase the turnout and it’s likely that there will be more people vote in the referendum if…