Just an afternoon on the “overall majority” markets
Could the numbers turn again? It’s been quite an afternoon on the betting markets as punters digested the poll news what was coming in and then piled into a Tory overall majority. So NOM – the favourite of only a few hours ago – is back to odds against and a Tory majority is odds on. The chart, from Bestbetting, shows how the exchanges reacted with the odds expressed as percentages. UPDATE BPIX – Mail on Sunday BPIX – Mail…
The polls as they are confirmed
YouGov – Sunday Times YouGov – Sunday Times May 1 Apr 30 CONSERVATIVES 35% 34% LIB DEMS 28% 28% LABOUR 27% 28% ComRes – Sunday Mirror/Indy on Sunday ComRes S. Mirror/IoS May 1 Apr 28 CONSERVATIVES 38% 36% LIB DEMS 25% 26% LABOUR 28% 29% ICM Sunday Telegraph ICM – Sunday Telegraph Apr 30 Apr 25 CONSERVATIVES 36% 33% LIB DEMS 27% 30% LABOUR 29% 28% Angus Reid – Sunday Express Angus Reid – Sunday Express May 1 Apr 26…
Tonight’s polling templates and news
These are the five that I’m expecting – numbers to be filled in as the news comes out. Where we get information from good sources that will be put underneath each box as an update. ICM Sunday Telegraph ICM – Sunday Telegraph Apr 30 Apr 25 CONSERVATIVES –% 33% LIB DEMS –% 30% LABOUR –% 28% ICM UPDATE 1355 – Clue from usually reliable posters are suggesting that the Tories are on 36% with the LDs on 29%. No information…
Might UNS be the best guide after all?
What’s the best way to model the Lib Dem surge? This has been an election campaign like no other, with the PM contender debates dominating coverage. While the Lib Dems have usually increased their showing in the polls over the course of a campaign, the double-digit increases are unprecedented in such a short period at such a crucial time. The problem in trying to predict the election outcome is as always how to translate votes into seats. We have rightly…