Year	Post-war elections with a change of government
1951	Outgoing LAB government had lost an effective majority. The Tories won outright
1964	Incoming Labour government with minuscule majority. Second election eighteen months later
1970	Outgoing Labour government with working majority replaced by Tory government also with a working majority
1974F	Incoming Labour minority government – second election held seven months later
1979	Outgoing LAB government had lost a working majority. The Tories won outright
1997	Outgoing CON government had lost a working majority. Labour won outright
2010	???

Is majority to majority too big an ask?

The table says it all. Of all the changes of government that we’ve seen in the UK since 1945 just one has seen a party with a working commons majority being replaced by another, also with a working majority.

The only time it happened was in 1970 which was one of the biggest upsets there has been – for all the indications were that Harold Wilson’s Labour government would win a thirds term.

With all the other changes of government either the outgoing party did not have a workable majority or the incoming didn’t.

Mike Smithson