Has the Labour fight-back stalled?
ICM
| ICM Guardian | Mar 14 | Mar 11 |
|---|---|---|
| CONSERVATIVES | 40% | 38% |
| LABOUR | 31% | 31% |
| LIB DEMS | 20% | 21% |
| LAB to CON swing from 2005 | 6% | 5% |
Tories back in the 40s in new ICM poll?
Tonight’s ICM poll for the Guardian is just out and has welcome news for the Tories after the set-back for them in the ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph over the weekend.
All this moves away from hung parliament territory and could have an impact on the narrative as we move slowly towards the campaign. A nine point lead with the likely better performance in the marginals points to a Tory majority government. There’ll be particular relief at Cameron Towers over some of the detail in the poll.
Julian Glover reports: “One explanation is that many voters, even Labour ones, dislike Brown. He lags behind Cameron in every question in today’s poll. The Tory leader is 11 points ahead of the prime minister as the man who most want to win and 20 points ahead as the leader best campaigning for “the votes of people like you”.
Cameron has a 14-point lead as the most competent prime minister, and an 11-point lead as the man most likely to lead Britain in the right direction.“
For Labour this is a real disappointment and they must hope that ICM is just a blip and not followed by others.
But the party that will be most concerned will be the Lib Dems who had the media spot-light on them throughout the weekend when the fieldwork was taking place. ICM is also the pollster that traditionally has them at the highest levels.