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Might it be the shortest-lived ministry since Wellington? As one of pbc’s more regular posters has reminded us more than once, there doesn’t need to be much slippage in the Tory lead to turn the current projected overall majority into minority territory and while it remains odds-on with all bookies that the Conservatives will win outright, the best odds on No Overall Majority are just 11/4 with Ladbrokes. Let’s suppose for the moment that the Conservatives win the largest number of…

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But is the trend bad news for Brown’s party? In the coming month or so we are likely to see many more polls like this which seek to find out the political preferences of specific professional groups. This, from MORI, is based on a survey of 1,000 teachers in England and Wales with the fieldwork taking place over a five week period towards the end of last year. It’s hard to know what to make of it though it does…

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CON 32% (21.4) LAB 35% (42.7) LD 13% (18.4) PC 13% (12.6) But the numbers point to big Tory gains In what I believe is only the second Wales-specific YouGov poll both Labour and the Tories have both moved up a point on the first such survey last November while the Lib Dems and PC have been knocked back a point each. The comparisons above are with the 2005 general election outcome in the Principality. If this is indeed what…

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Newcastle Journal What does this say about Labour and the Lib Dems? Thanks to Tapestry on the previous thread for highlighting the above report from the Newcastle Journal about the government chief whip and long-standing ally of the Prime Minister, Nick Brown. At the election he’ll be defending Newcastle upon Tyne East from the Lib Dems which would fall to Clegg’s party on an 8.7% swing So what are we to make of his extraordinary comments suggesting that the Lib…

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