UPDATED 2030

CON 42 % (38)
LAB 29 % (29)
LD 19 %(19)

The first of tonight’s polls is good for the Tories?

A new ComnRes poll for the Indy on Sunday is just out and will bring some cheer to Cameron Towers and might add to the gloom within Brown Central.

There’s been a straight four point switch from “others” to the Tories with Labour and the Lib Dem remaining static.

This is the second of two recent polls to have the Tories at the 42 level – a position that would almost certainly secure a comfortable working majority.

Labour will be cheered that after all their recent troubles that they are not going down.

ComRes, together with Ipsos-MORI, tend to be the most volatile pollsters and in December had one poll with the Tories on 41% – 17 points ahead only to be followed barely nine days later with Cameron’s party down three and Labour up five.

There’s likely to be another poll tonight – watch this space.
UPDATE

CON 40 %(42)
LAB 31% (30)
LD 18% (16)

But the second poll has the Tory lead being trimmed

So two polls going in different directions and, as usual, it’s hard to offer an explanation. Both firms operate in an entirely different manner but are trying to test the same thing – the state of opinion ahead of the general election.

The one common element is that “others” seem to be on the decline. With ComRes this was was to 10% while YouGov has it at 11%. All this is a far cry from those heady figures for others that we saw in the months after the Euro election.

It was inevitable that as the battle became focussed on Labour versus the Tories then you would see more polarisation – and that is what I think is happening.

Mike Smithson