Why is there such a difference in the spreads?

In the panel above are the commons seat spreads from Sporting Index and the firm that used to be called IG and now operates as ExtraBet.

For punters what is marked is the the quite substantial difference between the two markets. They are within one seat of each other with Labour but look at the difference with the Tory spread and the Lib Dem one.

In terms of the overall outcome the SPIN mid-point suggests a Tory majority of 55 seats while ExtraBet has it at 47 seats.

My main bet here is a Lib Dem buy at 50 seats – and it’s good to see how that has edged up. But currently I have nothing either way on Labour or the Tories.

I only go in when I have a firm conviction. Maybe the coming polling will make it clearer?

Mike Smithson