The PB Index: CON MAJ 52 (-8)

When we last calculated the PB Index just four days ago the differing numbers from the two weekend polls seemed to be cancelling each other out – at least in the eyes of punters wanting to risk their money.

But that’s all changed following the publication of the Guardian ICM poll which had the Tories unchanged on 40% but saw the Labour share move up two to 31 points.

The PB Index, is calculated by taking the average of mid-points on the main commons seat betting markets and then extrapolating them into a General Election outcome.

What seems to have happened, as our regular betting poster URW has observed, is that some hefty amounts of money have gone on Labour on one of them – Sporting Index – where the spreads have moved from CON 352-357: LAB 208-213: LD 50-53 on Sunday to the latest CON 345-350: LAB 215-220: LD 50-53

Interestingly there’s hardly been any change at all on the the Betfair commons seat line market where the main Tory and Labour spreads have stayed exactly the same at CON 352-360: LAB 208-214.

There’s one poll that was taken over the weekend that’s still to be published – the December Ipsos-MORI monitor. Last month we had to wait nearly a week to get the numbers which appeared in the following weekend’s Observer. It looks like the same is happening again which is frustrating – because when it comes out it will be quite old. But that’s the polling business.

Mike Smithson