..and Cameron has picked up 20% of them

The detailed data from Sunday’s ICM poll is now out and provides another reminder of the massive task and possibly an opportunity for the Prime Minister – winning back those who voted for the party last time.

One of the big issues that was always going to face Blair’s successor was to retain the extraordinary coalition that the former leader had created in 1997 when large swathes of middle England were persuaded that it was safe to vote for Labour.

For of those who voted for Tony Blair’s Labour in 2005 the latest data records that just 63% say they plan to do so next time. Looking back at other recent ICM polls this proportion is not exceptional and tends to be in a range of 60 – 70%.

The Conservative figure, by comparison, is always much higher and a couple of months ago touched 95%. In the latest poll it is down to 89%. Where the Tories are benefiting is that they are attracting a fair number 2005 Blair Labour voters – in this survey was as at 20%.

One trend that is quite pronounced has been the increase in the proportion of those who supported Charles Kennedy’s Lib Dems in 2005 who now say they are with Clegg’s party. This has been in 60s but the latest data has it at 75%.

One would have thought that the most likely switchers back to Labour would be from 2005 supporters and it will be interesting to see their take on what appears to be a core votes strategy. Will they feel alienated or want to return?

I’m on a short holiday until Friday. There will be regular posts on the site – some by guests and some, like this one, which have been written earlier.

Mike Smithson