CON 38%(39)
LAB 30%(29)
LD 20%(18)
OTHERS % 11(14)

This really is hung parliament territory

As predicted in the previous thread this evening Populus poll for the Times has some good news for Brown Central following the party’s relatively good week – even though it is all well within the margin of error

This is the closest the parties have been with the firm for exactly a year. In December 2008 the pollster reported a 4 point margin.

There’s little doubt that this will add fuel to the hung parliament debate and will give real hope for Labour that maybe, after all that they’ve seen, there is just a chance.

As we always say we need to see more polling. In recent months Populus has been recording leads which have generally been smaller than the other firms. Partly this is down to the mathematics. The false recall formula for its past vote weightings is a touch more helpful to Labour than ICM.

There is some good news for the Tories. The Times reports that “Mr Cameron will be relieved that Labour’s attacks on him seem to have made little impact. Asked whether in vew of his Eton education and his “privileged upbringing”, they thought his policies were aimed at “helping rich people, rather than the whole country”, just 34 per cent agreed, and 58 per cent disagreed.”

It goes on “..There is no evidence that a class war attack will win back Labour defectors: opposition is even higher (78 against 22 per cent) among those who voted Labour in 2005 but now say they would back the Tories.”

I wonder how spread punters will view it. The Labour numbers have been stuck almost solidly on 208 – 213 seats. Will Populus give Labour backers the confidence to risk some cash? I hope so. I’m a Lab our buyer at 207 seats and the more the market moves up the bigger will be my short-term trading profits!

Mike Smithson