Could UKIP switchers cost Dave his majority?
But will it be the same in the marginals?
Just looking at the detailed data for the latest ComRes poll and we see the dynamic that is causing the Tory totals to fall and is putting into question what seemed to be the forgone conclusion of a Tory majority.
For helpfully the firm is the only one of the pollsters where it’s possible to see the switching to the minor parties from what respondents said they did at the general election – and the news for the Tories is not good.
For in the latest survey more than five Tory voters in a hundred from 2005 are now saying that they will vote for the anti-EU party and that proportion seems to have risen since Cameron’s Lisbon referendum announcement.
Now I know we are dealing with very small numbers here and we have to look at more than just one poll – but the trend seems to be developing.
By comparison almost none of the Tory voters from 2005 questioned in ComRes’s February and March 2009 surveys said they were going to abandon their choice of four years earlier and switch to UKIP.
Going from almost zero to more than five in a hundred is bound to have a big impact.
This is a serious move so close to an election – the question is whether on general election day in the LAB>CON marginals such voters will continue with their choice or could they return home to their former allegiance.
The Tory hope is that where it matters then the priority of voters will be to kick Mr. Brown out rather than register an anti-EU protest.
But will that happen? My guess is that we’ll still be talking about this as the results are coming in.
PaddyPower have a market on the total number of votes UKIP will get. The current favourite is the 11/8 that it will jump from the 605,973 of 2005 to between three quarters of a million and a million.