CON 38%(-2)
LAB 24%(+1)
LD 20%(nc)
UKIP 6% (+1)
BNP 4% (+1)
GRN 3% (nc)
SNP/PC 4% (-1)

And the Tories slip into the 30s?

The most striking characteristics of this afternoon’s exclusive new poll by Angus Reid Strategies for Politicalbetting.com are the increases in the shares for UKIP and the BNP with the Tories slipping down to 38%.

Like yesterday’s YouGov poll the total proportion of respondents opting for other parties has seen an increase with Angus Reid reporting the largest share of any of the monthly pollsters. What YouGov did not tell us yesterday was the make-up of their “others” total. My guess is they saw a UKIP increase as well.

The fieldwork finished last night after a period when MPs expenses were making the headlines as well as the Tory decision on the Lisbon treaty referendum.

Whether it’s the latter that has driven the UKIP and BNP numbers I don’t know. But one in ten voters according to this poll are saying that they will go with the BNP or UKIP which is the highest proportion by far in any survey since the effects of June’s Euro election worked its way out of the system.

So it looks as though the Tories are taking a hit but Labour are still in very serious trouble up just single point to 24%.

The poll took place online with a sample in excess of 2,000.

I’ve been keen to get the headline numbers out as soon as possible. Other findings from the survey will come out in the next day or so with the full data being available on Monday.

Mike Smithson