What’s the next set of polls going to show?
Will the Lisbon compromise mean the Tories are up or down?
It’s welcome back to PB’s cartoonist, Marf, with a new drawing this afternoon neatly linking linking the Tory polling position with all the publicity about the plinth in Trafalgar Square.
For the next round of surveys, including the latest exclusive poll for PB from Angus Reid Strategies, might set key pointers to the eventual general election outcome.
Will the Cameron switch on the Lisbon referendum, as Labour hopes, lead to a decline in the Tory position or are we going to be more or less back to where we were before the conference season?
And what about the Lib Dems? The two most recent polls – from YouGov and ICM – both ended their fieldwork on the same day and reported very different fortunes for Clegg’s party. The former had them going to 16% while the latter put them on 21%.
The critical numbers, though, are the Labour shares. Can they start to get out of the mid-late 20s and even touch 30% as they did briefly during and immediately after their conference?
The Angus Reid numbers should be out at some point on Monday and I’m expecting Populus in the Times on that day as well. I’ve no specific knowledge about the weekend but it’s pretty likely that we will see something.