How many will get on the UKIP bus?
Could today prompt a Tory seepage to the anti-EU party?
The big danger for Cameron’s Tories from today’s EU policy announcement is that this could lead to a seepage of support to UKIP at the general election.
If you read ConservativeHome or believe their statistically-suspect “poll” of Tory members you would think that the world was coming to an end. Yet when it comes down to it the issue at the election will be whether voters want Brown’s Labour government to continue
But UKIP is progressing as we saw in the June Euro elections and certainly the focus on the EU could help them develop momentum. There is also the prospect that they might take their first seat at Westminster. Nigel Farage is the high-profile opponent to John Bercow in the plush rural constituency of Buckingham.
So all of this makes a new market from 
In 2005 they chalked up 603,298 nationally – an overall vote share of 2.2%. It’s hard to see them doing any worse than that but how much better will they perform? These are PaddyPower’s opening prices:-
3/1 0 – 750,000
5/4 750,001 – 1,000,000
5/2 1,000,001 – 1,250,000
9/2 1,250,001 – 1,500,000
6/1 1,500,001 or more
This is not a percentage market but on actual votes so things could be affected by the overall turnout. The 5/4 for the 750,001 – 1,000,000 votes looks the best bet though I can see UKIP optimists being attracted by the 1,500,001 or more segment where they would get 6/1.
All good stuff and great to see a new and different general election market.