CON 31% (+9.6) LAB 34% (-8.7) LD 12% (-6.4) PC 15% (+2.4) The first Wales-only YouGov poll The much anticipated first YouGov voting intention poll of Welsh voters is just out and suggests that the Tories are going to make big gains in a part of the UK which used to be almost a blue-free zone. The comparisons above are with what actually happened in the Principality on May 5th 2005. Then Labour won 29 of the 40 seats with…
CON 40%(nc) LAB 27%(-1) LD 18%(-1) And just five more people say they are voting BNP Possibly the most significant number in tonight’s Comres poll for the Independent is the share for the BNP after the massive focus on the party last week in the run-up to the fieldwork. All sorts of figures were being bandied about over the possible effect and yet the share only moves up from 1% ten days ago to 2% – and a lot of…
PoliticsHome MegaMarginals poll Oct 2009 What does the polling show? Ever since the PoliticsHome mega marginals survey came out at the start of October I’ve been planning to do specific threads on each of the seat segments that were included within the 33,000 sample survey. What’s prompted me to do something now is a comment on the previous thread Easterross in which he asserted that “Cornwall, Devon and Somerset will be ALMOST LibDem free zones come 10th May 2010.” He…
Can anybody spot the value bet? Over the weekend the ever resourceful Shadsy at Ladbrokes introduced his general election vote share handicap. Essentially there are three runners – the Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems – and you have to work out who’ll come out top applying the handicaps as set out. So the Tories start at scratch, Labour at +15 percentage points of the GB vote share with the Lib Dems on +22 points. So if the result was…
Will Hague’s opposition thwart Tone’s EU hopes? With just one country left to ratify the Lisbon treaty we are getting closer to the moment when the EU will be appointing the first President of the EU council who is likely to become referred to as the President of Europe. The big question, and there’ quite a bit of betting on this, is who is going to get it? Can Tony Blair, Labour’s star three-times election winner who was ousted to…
How do you rate the chances of Gordon Brown leading Labour at the General Election? There’s a 51% chance or more that he will There’s a 50% chance or less that he won’t
A guest article from Peter Ould It’s commonly asserted that BNP voters are most likely to be disaffected Labour supporters. For example, Iain Dale on Saturday noted that the places that the BNP have done well are all strong Labour constituencies. Equally, some Labour commentators have blamed the rise of the BNP on the lack of an effective Conservative opposition. Which is it? To examine both these propositions I decided to look at some polling data. Taking the four polling…
Or is Brown’s party just clutching at straws? According to Gaby Hinsliff and Henry McDonald in the Observer this morning ” a private analysis by Labour strategists suggests that the blues could be denied up to 50 seats at the election because of UKIP supporters splitting the Tory vote. The figures in Labour’s study, if that’s not too grand a term, “..are based on 100 “supermarginal” seats where its MPs are holding on with majorities of less than 2,000.” Certainly…