What do we think of HenryG’s tip?

The overnight thread has been dominated by a comment by the usually well-informed HenryG that could have an important bearing on the Labour leadership.

He wrote simply: “..I’m hearing that Mandelson could be about to shift support away from Brown into David Miliband’s direction. Not sure how that is going to manifest, or when or if it’s just whispers that do the rounds.“

Make of this what you will. Henry has set it out straightforwardly with the appropriate caveats and there’s little doubt that Brown’s handling of latest phase of the MP expenses saga has not won him any friends. For a leader to be heckled at a PLP meeting, as was reported to have happened last week, is almost unprecedented.

Mandelson will play a key and possibly the pivotal role in Labour’s succession. He was the one who kept the ship afloat after the June 4th electoral disasters and the Purnell resignation but there was always a temporary feel about what the outcome.

As for David Miliband he has been having a good few weeks without the vagueness and uncertainty that seemed to characterise his approach a year ago. He’s also learned not be be photographed holding a banana!

William Hill and Ladbrokes have Miliband at 7/1. Victor Chandler at 13/2 while PaddyPower make him a 6/1 shot.

The current Labour betting favourite, Alan Johnson, now seems totally out of it.

With so many changes of mood the bookies must be loving this.

Mike Smithson