Are the big moves in target-rich regions?

Whenever the full dataset from a new poll comes out there’s usually a discussion on the site of the regional breakdowns. The problem, of course, is that each sub-set is not subject to the overall weighting calculations and sample sizes are small.

In the chart above we see something different – the aggregated MORI polling data for the first nine months of 2009 compared with what happened at the general election in May 2005. The overall increase in the Tory share is 8 points so the key ones to look at are those where there is a lot of variance from that.

This was prepared by Ben Page, CEO of Ipsos-MORI, and is the second aspect that I’ve featured – the first, on gender differences was discussed here.

A note-worthy element is that, with the exception of the East Midlands, the trends are broadly in line with the PoliticsHome mega-marginals poll the weekend before last. The disproportionate increases to the Tory share are in the target-rich regions of the north and the west Midlands.

Quite why the moves are bigger here is hard to say – but these are areas where Labour has suffered badly in local elections which of itself eats into the activist best and cuts off some of the campaigning finds. So much of politics in the UK relies on elected councillors handing over part of their allowances to the party thus adding to their problems when council seats are lost.

All this is useful whenever we discuss the uniform national swing which drives the basic seat calculators.

Mike Smithson