A re-look at Blair Freebairn’s battleground map It was just two years ago that geographer, Blair Freebairn, did a PB guest slot in which he produced the above map to show where the general election battle-ground will be. This has had a great influence on my thinking and I thought it well worth repeating. Blair noted: “Take a good look at the map. Notice anything? That these marginal seats will decide the next election is not news. But look at…
CON 42 (nc) LAB 28 (+2) LD 17 (-1) Another survey within the margin of error When we has the last YouGov survey in Monday’s Telegraph the main news was that Labour had dropped a couple of points. Well tonight’s poll for the Sun has Brown’s party back at 28% but the movement is well within the margin of error so you cannot conclude very much. Amongst other figures the paper reports: “Voters also say Mr Cameron would make a…
Is this where the battle is really going to take place? With all the recent focus on Scotland perhaps it’s worth reminding ourselves that the vast majority of the key battles that will determine whether Cameron’s Tories have a working majority are in England. Last time all but four Tory seats were in England. That total might increase next time if current poll trends remain but still it will be England that dominates. Of the 650 seats to be contested…
The 5/6 on Cameron being “the winner” looks good Quick off the mark Irish bookmakers PaddyPower has just opened a market on who in an independent poll will be judged the “winner” of the first TV debate of the general election campaign. I assume that all bets are void if the debate does not take place and you’ll get your stake back. I can see potential problems in settling the market if, for instance, separate pollsters rate it differently. This…
Sky News What’ll be the impact on the campaign? Things seem to be moving over a TV debate between the three main leaders during the general election campaign. There are reports that David Frost could be the chairman while Sky News has launched its own campaign. Is it going to happen? The challenge is that this could play such a vital role in the campaign that Cameron, Clegg and Brown (assuming it is he) have to be ultra-cautious. This would…
How dangerous is this September for Mr. Brown? The holidays are over, the party conferences are only a week or so away, and now we get the latest Lockerbie stories linking, in however a tenuous way, the prime minister. Mr. Brown hung on in the aftermath of the June 4th election disaster when Labour lost all of its remaining county councils, its national vote drop in the EU election dropping to just over 15% and what appeared to be a…
BBC News General Election betting: Ladbrokes William Hill Victor Chandler PaddyPower Mike Smithson
Article Updated 1855 Ipsos-Mori But remember what happened on May 1 1997? The above chart from MORI shows the changing to responses since 1997 to its economic optimism question which has been asked in the same manner for several decades. As can be seen there’s been a sharp rise in recent months and now the numbers are showing a net positive. Twelve years ago, just after the election, the trend continued and it touched +28 points – last month it…