Do ICM’s figures start to look like an election result?

With just over eight months to go before the general election campaign is due to start the latest survey from ICM for the Guardian underlines the challenge facing Mr. Brown and his party.

For while there was a sharpish move away from “others” – which was always going to happen as we got further on from the EU elections – Labour finds itself on a standstill with the Tories and Lib Dems gaining two points each.

If Labour are still in the 20s on polling day and the Tories in the 40s then there can be no doubt about the outcome – a comfortable majority for Cameron.

There might be a touch of disappointment for Labour that the difficult publicity that Cameron had to deal with in the aftermath of the phone-tapping affair does not seem to have rubbed off in terms of people’s voting intentions.

The Lib Dems will be pleased to be back in the 20s with the pollster that traditionally gives them the best numbers.

So a poll with things getting back to normal – a normality which will be very uncomfortable in Brown Central.

Mike Smithson