Populus CON 36 (-5) LAB 24(+3) LD 19 (+4) Blow for Cameron in new Populus poll The latest Populus poll in the Times looks like a serious blow for the Tories following nine terrible days for Labour. The voting intention figures above are bad enough but one of the other findings could be very worrying. As the paper puts it “..faced by a straight choice, 44 per cent would still prefer a Labour government and 42 per cent a Conservative…
Are there lessons you’ve learned for the future? Throughout Monday night, when the Euro results were coming in, the number that meant most to my betting positions was the turnout percentage. My initial call to take the Hills’ 5/1 that it would be below 30% had been ditched once I’d seen the postal voting numbers. My next bet up was 11/4 for the 30 – 34.99% range and a four figure sum was at stake as the numbers came in…
Is the American view of us fair? Paul Waugh in the Evening Standard has picked up on the cover article in the latest Time Magazine which is headed “Why Britain wants to see the back of Gordon Brown”. It’s well worth the read and interesting to see how this all looks from an American perspective. One interesting quote from the piece is this one in which British politics are described as a “contact sport” – something I’ve never heard it…
Is he a Bercow fan or does he have his own plans? The left-leaning Tory MP for Buckingham, John Bercow, continues to be the firm betting favourite to replace Michael Martin in the election a week on Monday and there’s a further write-up of his chances in the Daily Mail. As the report notes: “Labour ministers are plotting to install a Left-wing Tory MP hated by his own leaders as Commons Speaker. Several senior members of the Cabinet have told…
SportingIndex CON 358-363 LAB 202-207 LD 52-55 Betfair GE Party Line CON 350-355 LAB 205-207.5 LD 50-54.5 Why are the prices so different? Has anybody else noticed the discrepancy between the GE Spreads and Betfair’s ‘Party Seats Line’? The mid point sell of Labour on SPIN is 204.5; on the PSL it is 207.25. Not a lot of difference, you might think. But hold on. The PSL sell price should always be *lower* than the spreads, not higher, as it…
Could this be a consolation for losing her cabinet place? There’s a story just running on the First Post under the banner (Exclusive: Beckett for Speaker) which says “According to The First Post’s sources in the Labour Party, Margaret Beckett is ‘all but’ confirmed as favourite for the Speaker’s chair”. This is the first time her name has been mentioned and she does not even figure on the main betting markets. I’ve just got bets on by phone at 20/1…
Does Labour want Maggie’s records out before the election? One little item that stood out for me in Brown’s constitutional statement is the plan to reduce the so-called “30 year rule” to twenty years. This is the arrangement by which highly sensitive cabinet and other papers are made available for researchers to look at – but only thirty years after the events. So until now the latest documentation that we’ve seen has been of the Callaghan’s government in the period…
Would it be held at the same time as a referendum on PR? This is a completely wild guess but could the Prime Minister tell us the election date in his statement today on proposed voting reform? My thinking is that coming up with a date now would take away some of the pressure that he’s under within the party and also blunt the edge of all the Tory calls for an immediate general election. Brown will be only too…