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Month: May 2009

Is this simply about name recognition?

Is this simply about name recognition?

PoliticsHome What do we think of the PH/Evening Standard poll? There’s a new poll tonight by PoliticsHome for the Evening Standard on who the public would prefer as the next Labour leader. The figures are in the chart above. The shares were: STRAW 16%: JOHNSON 13%: MILIBAND-D 8%: HARMAN 6%:PURNELL 1%: MILIBAND-E 1%: CRUDDAS 1%: SMITH 1%: MCDONNELL 1%: COOPER 1%: BURNHAM 1%. Compared with the last the PH poll there’s been an increase in support for Johnson and Harman…

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Could it soon be pay-day for Jacqui Smith punters?

Could it soon be pay-day for Jacqui Smith punters?

Mail Online Surely she can’t survive at the Home Office? One of the forms of political betting which William Hill seemed to have made their own is on whether named politicians are going to be able to survive in their posts. Other firms and Betfair always seem reluctant to get into “will he/she survive” betting and you have to admire William Hill for always being ready, it seems, to take wagers on troubled politicians who are in the news. Betfair,…

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How does this compare with Dave & Gord?

How does this compare with Dave & Gord?

Wasn’t Tony rougher and ruder? Lots of comment today about Cameron’s approach to PMQs and his concentration on Brown’s leadership style rather than specific policies. But how new is this? Isn’t this exactly what Tony Blair did to John Major in the run-up to the 1997 general election? This is surely all part of the process? The idea is to so demoralise your opponent and his party that that of itself will create more problem and hopefully, from Cameron’s point…

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Is this the 96/97 measure to test Brown against?

Is this the 96/97 measure to test Brown against?

ICM Guardian polls Can Labour stay above 30% for the next year? Yesterday I had lunch in the “Westminster village” and it still comes as a surprise to hear apparently sophisticated political pundits not being fully aware that polling has changed dramatically since Tony Blair coming to power in 1997. Comparisons from that era with today are simply not valid – unless the pollster is ICM which is the only one still operating from then that has a consistent methodology….

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Does this suggest a very low turnout on June 4th?

Does this suggest a very low turnout on June 4th?

Ipsos-MORI What will it do to the campaign if the EU is not an issue? We are just four weeks and two days from the final national election test ahead of the general election – and hardly anybody seems to have noticed. The one betting market – on whether or not Labour’s share will drop below 20% – says it all. That’s all that the media, pundits and punters seem to be interested in. For the political narrative is almost…

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Johnson becomes the favourite to succeed Gord

Johnson becomes the favourite to succeed Gord

PoliticsHome100 But is he good value at 4/1? Two developments during the day on the Labour leadership – the PH100 panel of MPs, senior political journalists, key party strategists and think tank leaders – came out overwhelmingly to say that Alan Johnson would pose the biggest treat to the Tories. A total of 70% of those who took part backed the health secretary. At the same time on the betting markets Johnson moved into the favourite slot for the first…

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Could this man bring down Brown?

Could this man bring down Brown?

What if Mandy decides that the PM is bad for Labour? An interesting piece by Rachel Sylvester in the Times on the subject everybody seems to want to talk about – how Brown could be forced out. She writes: “.. what is certain is that the Blairites are not going to go down without a fight. The one to watch is Peter Mandelson. By bringing his former enemy back into the Cabinet last year Mr Brown locked in the modernisers…

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Is Alan the only one with a strategy to fight Dave?

Is Alan the only one with a strategy to fight Dave?

Could his approach curtail Labour’s losses? Over the long holiday weekend there’s been a lot of comment about the health secretary Alan Johnson and whether under his leadership the coming general election would not be as bad for Labour as some are suggesting. What the Johnson backers are not explaining is the “how” – the reason why, of all the current crop of leading ministers he is the only one with a well thought out and effective means of dealing…

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