CONSERVATIVES 45% (+2)
LABOUR 33% (-4)
LIB DEMS 16% (+3)

YouGov: London moves further to the Tories

A new YouGov poll on voting intentions in London is out in tonight’s Evening Standard. The comparisons above are with the last such poll which was published in mid-January. Then it appeared that the swing to Cameron’s party was less than in the rest of the country.

That trend is still there though things have got much worse for Labour nationally. Today’s poll points to a 9.5% swing to the Tories on the May 2005 general election which compared with the the 10.5% swing suggested in the last YouGov national poll published yesterday.

The big shadow hanging over London MPs is the publication of all their detailed expenses. How will those dumb and greedy enough to have claimed for second homes be perceived when that comes out in July? This is not going to be good for incumbents and Labour has more of them

Even so according to the seat projections based on this latest poll Labour is set to lose 14 seats. There’s also the possibility that the Lib Dems seats of Carshalton, Sutton and Richmond might be vulnerable – but none of their London MPs claim the second home allowance.

What the poll does not help us with are some of the key betting constituencies such as Brent Central where sitting MPs Sarah Teather (LD) and Dawn Butler (Lab) are in a rough fight following boundary changes. My money is on Sarah – currently 6/4 – who is a non-claimant.