Is PH’s “Voter enthusiasm” survey a good guide to the result?
A new survey this afternoon from PoliticsHome appears to provide a massive boost to David Cameron on ther second day of his return to work after being on bereavement leave following the death of his son.
Firstly respondents were asked a constituency specific voting intention which is somewhat different to that which we normally see. It read â€œHow would you vote if there was a general election tomorrowâ€, they were asked â€œLooking ahead to the next general election, how do you predict you will end up voting in your constituency?â€
Then they were asked, in effect, how enthusiastic they felt about their choice and were given the options of â€œvery enthusiasticâ€, â€œquite enthusiasticâ€, â€œnot very enthusiasticâ€, â€œnot enthusiasticâ€ and â€œactively depressed but I cannot foresee a better option.â€
What we don’t seem to have from PH is the breakdown on the voting intention. Maybe this will come out separately because, in a manner similar to PH’s massive marginals poll, it puts the focus on what people will do in their specific seats and so should embrace any tactical element.
The proportions for each party saying that they were very or quite enthusiastic were: CON 79%: LAB 65%: LD 66%. The final “actively depressed” option recorded 5% for the Tories and Labour but a total of 11% for the LD voters – the latter perhaps an indication of tactical voting.
Overall it’s hard to view these numbers as being anything other than a big boost for Tories and perhaps an indication that in that phrase that has become so common recently – Cameron is “sealing the deal”.