CONSERVATIVES 42% (nc)
LABOUR 30% (+2)
LIB DEMS 19% (+1)

But should Labour have expected more?

Well we now have the first poll since Brown’s visit to Washington and the numbers are above. For the report on the Times website it is not possible to deduce the Lib Dem total but this will be inserted as soon as we get the number. UPDATE – [ConHome now have have this at 19%]

As Peter Riddell’s report says these “…figures suggest that any “Obama bounce” after Gordon Brown’s visit to Washington last week was very modest. Some 25 per cent say they feel more positively towards him as a result and 13 per cent less positively, with 63 per cent saying no difference.”

Given the huge effort and spin operation last week from Brown Central the poll might come as something of a disappointment. David Cameron, of course, has been out of the picture for nearly a fortnight and is likely to get a lot of attention on his return.

So every single poll from every single pollster during 2009 has had the Conservatives in the 40s. This is a solid performance and suggests that Cameron might be going some way towards what everybody seems to be talking about at the moment “sealing the deal” – whatever that is.

An interesting feature is that Populus, perhaps following the lead of MORI, asked about people’s occupations and whether they worked in the public or private sectors. Riddell notes: “Conservative support is 38 per cent in the public sector, but 45 per cent in the private sector, while Labour’s rating is slightly lower in the public than the private sector, at 26 against 29 per cent. The difference is partly because the Liberal Democrats do much better in the public than the private sector, at 23 against 17 per cent..”

That last bit is the only reference to the Lib Dem share so I assume it is equal or slightly better than the 18% reported in February.

Betting markets for the next general election.