PB’s “The Money Says” Index : CON MAJ 56 (+2)
We’ve barely mentioned the commons seat spread betting markers over the past two or three weeks because there’s been hardly any movement. But I do like to do an article every two to three weeks if only as a matter of record.
The day has seen a bit of a change following since the weekend YouGov and ComRes polls. Now the Tory buy level on both main markets – from Sporting Index and IG – have it at 356 seats. Last July, when Labour’s ratings hit rock bottom, the Tory spread got into this territory – but no further.
Even though the polls in the summer were pointing to three digit Tory majorities punters then and now have been very cautious going beyond the 356 level and the corresponding sell levels for Labour.
All this is about assessing the potential profit against the downside risk – and the potential losses from a Tory buy at 356 seats or a Labour sell at 224 seats could be considerable.
Also there doesn’t seem to have been much activity and this has kept the “traders” away. These are gamblers who try to predict both the polling and betting trends in the hope of being on the right side when there’s sharp movement in either direction. These punters are not betting on the overall result of the election but are looking to short-term profits by guessing which way the levels will go. That’s certainly my approach to spread betting.
The Lib Dems have edged forward a bit and I bought last week at the 44 seat level. This is my only current spread contract.
It’s hard to see what going to move the market. As we saw there were very few Labour backers about during Brown’s December bounce.