CONSERVATIVES 41% (-2)
LABOUR 25% (-3)
LIB DEMS 22% (+6)

A third poll shows a surge for Clegg’s party

In what is a sensational poll the February survey from ComRes for the Indy on Sunday reports a huge increase in the Lib Dem shares, a further fall-off for Labour and the Tories still comfortably in 40s.

A week ago when ICM had the Lib Dems up to 22% the initial reaction was that the survey might have been an outlier and we needed, perhaps, to wait to see if other surveys were also reporting increases for the party. Well Populus did so last Monday night, though not on this scale.

Before coming to a firm view about this latest poll I’m going to wait to see the detailed data because the pollster has a different way of dealing with its past vote weighting calculation than the other firms that operate this system.

What seems to be happening is that there’s been a further drop in confidence in Labour which is perhaps not surprising after Brown’s pretty terrible week. But the beneficiaries are not the Tories but the Lib Dems who have been having a higher profile in recent weeks.

The overall impact is that the Tory lead is now back at 16% – something that we have not seen since last October.

There is another poll expected tonight from YouGov – let’s see of that firm is also reflecting the same trend.

Commons Seat projections: If this poll was the outcome of the general election then the Lib Dems would take fourteen seats from Labour.

General election betting – Lib Dem seats.