CONSERVATIVES 40% (-4)
LABOUR 28% (-4)
LIB DEMS 22% (+6)
…and Labour is back in the 20s again
There’s a new ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph tomorrow with quite dramatic changes on the last surrvey from the pollster nearly a fortnight ago.
The big boost is to the Lib Dem total – up 6% at 22% which is only a fraction off what the party, then led by Charles Kennedy, got at the 2005 general election.
Generally ICM, which has a different approach to the other pollsters, gives Clegg’s party the biggest share. The Guardian January poll that had 16% was quite a shock. Maybe both numbers are outliers and the true figure is in the 19-20% region? Who knows?
What is very helpful to the Lib Dems is the way the ICM voting intention question is worded – and puts the focus on what is happening in the constituencies of those being questioned. Add onto that slightly more favourable mathematics and it’s easy to see why the pollster’s figures are usually good.
I know that this is the pollster that the party takes most notice of and there will be a lot of comfort from the latest numbers.
Labour’s 28% will add to the gloomy atmosphere at Number 10. This is the smallest share from the pollster since the awful slump last July and is the rating in the 20s since August.
It will be a little comfort to Labour that the Lib Dems are the main beneficiary though Cameron’s team will be relieved that for the second ICM poll in succession that they are still in the 40s.