Remember how the deputy was called wrongly for Alan Johnson? The final Saturday of June last year saw a big political betting event come to a climax – who would come out on top in Labour’s hugely complicated electoral system in the ballot to be Gordon’s deputy. The polls said Alan Johnson, the betting said Alan Johnson, even Sky News and the Daily Telegraph website above called it for Alan Johnson only a few minutes before the big announcement was…
Wikimedia Commons What role will Puerto Rico play in 2008 and in the future? With respect to the electoral battle being waged by Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, no-one could have imagined back in January that the Puerto Rico primary would be anything other than the chance for the people of this Caribbean island to feel involved in the process of selecting the Democratic nominee. Whilst the nomination is substantially decided, the sheer size of the Puerto Rican electorate could…
Would Clegg’s approach to Labour be the campaign issue? The suggestions that Mark Oaten might quit his Winchester seat before the general election and create a by election creates big challenges for both Nick Clegg and David Cameron. For the newly-energised Tories, flushed with confidence following Crewe and Nantwich, would fancy their chances in a seat that was lost to the Lib Dems by just two votes at the 1997 general election. Then the result was contested in the courts,…
Looking Forward to Next Year In all likelihood, next year’s European Elections, and local government elections (mostly for the County Councils, and a few unitary and shadow authorities) will be held simultaneously. Year three of a Parliament is almost invariably the worst year for an incumbent government, in terms of secondary elections, and so Labour can expect to do slightly better next year than this (as they did in 1978, and as the Conservatives did in 1996). Unfortunately for Labour,…
An interesting piece here on Steve McCabe’s view of the Crewe & Nantwich by election. He was, of course, Labour’s campaign manager who came under a lot of flack. He says “We set out to secure between 10,000-11,000 votes. Allowing for a turn out of around 35-40%, that was not unreasonable for a by-election. If there was no Liberal Democrat collapse, victory was possible, however unlikely.” Alas turnout was nearly 58% and the Lib Dems saw a partial collapse in…
What will YouGov do for Gord’s survival chances? The above is what happens when you key in the C47-L23-LD18 general election vote shares from today’s Daily Telegraph YouGov poll into the Anthony Wells commons seat calculator. If you do the same with the Martin Baxter calculator at Electoral Calculus you get even worse projections for Labour – CON 452: LAB 138: LD 32 seats. Martin’s website conveniently lists the outcome for every single seat in the country – something that…
Con 47 (+2), Lab 23 (-2) LD 18 (0) Is the end now nigh for Gordon? A poll by YouGov in the Telegraph shows that Labour support is at the lowest since polling began in 1943. Brown’s personal popularity on a par with Major’s low Labour’s lowest score under Foot was only 23.5 How much worse can things get for Brown? Double Carpet
Wikipedia A guest article from Cityunslicker Even as the rumours of an imminent challenge to our glorious Prime Minister fade, there is still a good chance of an election before May 2010 – no doubt Tory central office is preparing for this and, hidden from view, may even be preparing a manifesto. The mantra ‘It’s the Economy, Stupid’ is going to hold firm for the next year or two as the UK economic situation worsens, recession or no recession. But…