Would a new completely new face in 2010 be a “game changer”? Over the past couple of hours I have been looking over ministerial lists, scouring Wikipedia biogs and viewing video clips to see if I can I identify a “Labour Sarah Palin”. My starting point is the notion that the only realistic way that Labour can stave off defeat in 20 months time is by replacing its leader with someone completely new and exciting – say by March 2010….
Why understanding 1997 is the key to the 2010 result? There’s a widespread perception that in 1997 Tony Blair got his massive landslide victory because huge numbers of Tories switched. This is wrong and does not fit with the voting numbers – for Labour won even though it got fewer votes than Neil Kinnock secured five years earlier. In 1992 Labour chalked up 11,559,735 votes. Five years later Tony Blair got in with his party getting a smaller number 11,348,623….
Guest slot by David Herdson – “Prime Ministers fall but rarely” That the events of November 1990 are still casting their shadow over British politics nearly eighteen years on is testament to not only their drama but also their rarity. Throughout the twentieth century, Margaret Thatcher was the only prime minister so unambiguously forced out by her own party. The others who left mid-term did so of their own accord, because of the lack of a parliamentary majority, through ill-health,…
There’s a new poll out this afternoon from YouGov which was commissioned by Channel 4 news and which suggests that David Cameron is heading for a three-figure majority. The poll has been done on a format that I have never seen before – those questioned were limited to 60 key constituencies where Labour is defending majorities of between 6 per cent and 14 per cent. So it’s unlike the standard marginal polls that we have seen in the past where…
But will Palin’s Teflon coating wear off? The money has continued to pile on John McCain in the White House betting and the Betfair market has him at the equivalent of 43% chance. This compares with a 44.5% chance on the Iowa Electronic Markets where “shares” in political futures are traded. The Dublin-based Intrade now has McCain as favourite at 50.5%. This trend will continue until the poll swing to the Republican falters or moves in the opposite direction and…
Could relations with a McCain White House be undermined? Lots of coverage in the UK papers this morning of the article that appeared under Gordon Brown’s name in a specialised publication in which it appeared that the PM was backing Obama over McCain in the White House race. The gentle mocking by the McCain campaign is reflected in the headline in the panel above with the term – “The Coveted Gordon Brown endorsement”. The piece opens “Far be it from…
What if “Troopergate” gets out of hand? So the White House race has come alive and promises to be an absorbing contest which will grip us for seven weeks or so and maybe even beyond. “Lipstickgate” has been the issue of the day and the way it has developed reflects the changing media narrative – Obama is under fire as the focus goes on Sarah Palin. On the polling front the Gallup daily tracking poll is now showing a 5%…
Does Brown really have a chance of saving the day? There’s an interesting piece by Kevin Maguire of the Mirror quoting an as yet to be published article by Peter Kellner of YouGov suggesting that Labour might still have a chance. The arguments are ones we have seen before – governments, it is said recover from mid-term lows and we all know that the Tories need a vote margin of 6% just to be equal on seats and a 10%…