Can we really envisage him being at Number 10? One thing that we are learning from the McCain-Obama battle in the US is that instant reactions by the media and professional commentators are not always the best guide to the public’s mood. Thus a week ago the first debate was scored by most of the experts as being a McCain win or a tie – yet the polling this week has been all towards the Democratic contender. So I’m holding…
Have the markets been right to be optimistic? So it’s back to another nail-biter over the bail-out bill – described at the weekend by the Republican Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, as a “crap sandwich”. This time it will be in the senate where there’s said to be more support than in the House of Representatives. The markets seem to be assuming that it will go through – given the way stocks have recovered. We’ll see because if it doesn’t then…
Will experience triumph over calls for change? Given the lead-up to this afternoon’s speech – the partial recovery of Labour in the polls and the global financial crisis – Cameron had one overwhelming objective: to look and sound like the prime minister in waiting. This was all about setting the tone and style right. For unlike almost any other event during the political year the party leader’s main conference speech is the one that gets extra special treatment by the…
What happens when you publish a voodoo poll Every so often people come on the site with news of an online poll in one outlet or another and seek to suggest that they are representative of public opinion. Well they are not for the simple reason that those who bother to take part are self-selecting and by definition not representative of the electorate. Also if you have several computers or are smart enough you can vote as often as you…
Click on panel to watch Why doesn’t he try to make what he says interesting? On the thread last night James A posted a link to one of Brown’s hurriedly arranged interviews yesterday and raised the issue of the PM’s lack of variation in the words that he uses. Just click on the panel and watch it for 90 seconds and you’ll hear him saying the same thing using the same few words time and time again. There’s no recognition…
Does a 16%-20% margin seem like a value bet? The Irish bookmaker PaddyPower has put up a range of markets linked to David Cameron’s big conference speech tomorrow – the most interesting being the one featured in the panel above – what polling lead will the Tories have in the first post-big speech survey? After some consultation with me this will be settled on the basis of the party shares in the first YouGov poll where the fieldwork starts after…
Could it be a game-changer for Labour? There was an emergency statement by David Cameron at the Tory conference this morning in which he sought to look statesmanlike and ensure that his party cannot be portrayed by Labour as opponents of tighter regulation. It will also mean that he gets onto the bulletins during what will be a highly charged day. The key point was an an announcement that the party would be withdrawing its objection to aspects of a…
Would an ending of the crisis put McCain back in contention? So it’s another day and for Barack Obama and John McCain there are just five weeks more left before Americans vote to decide the next occupant of the White House. The chart, based on the judgement of punters on the Betfair betting exchange says it all. Two weeks ago McCain’s chances of success based on his betting price were put at 45%. This morning they are about 28% –…