How much was down to Gord being local? (Note: this posting was prepared before I left for my short holiday – if it has been overtaken by events then that’s the reason) One feature of this election is the extent to which we should have taken into account that there is undoubtedly a lot of Fife pride about a local man being prime minister. This is the same pattern that we see in the constituencies of party leaders during general…
A day for humble pie from punters? There’s little doubt that Labour’s successful defence overnight of Glenrothes, and by such a margin, is a sensational result that has the potential to change the political landscape. It is also one in the eye for punters who got this terribly wrong. My initial call on this, just ten days ago, was to back Labour at prices that were then about 7/4. The opinion polls in Scotland were running in the party’s favour…
The result thread? I am still knackered from Tuesday/Wednesday so won’t be staying up for the result. The betting should continue right until the declaration. Cheers, Mike Smithson
Could there still be a shock? The chart above shows the best Labour betting price expressed as an implied probability over the past 24 hours and as can be seen there has been a steady decline. Generally on by-election days the party campaign HQs start to get a feel in the early evening of how well they are doing and this often is reflected in the betting. Alas that has yet to happen though it does seem to have bottomed…
Why the split with the media views? This morning the “insiders and experts” who make up the PH100 gave their final verdict on today’s by election in Fife – and their view is that it’s very close but that Labour might just do it. Interestingly PH reports a massive split in the panel between the politicians and the media representatives: “The media panellists are political editors, leading commentators and executives. A solid majority of them are forecasting a win for…
Share your experiences The US presidential election is by far and away the biggest political betting event of them all and my guess is that the level of activity that we have seen in the past year will exceed what’s wagered on the next UK general election. Hopefully we’ve all managed to get a bit of sleep and the lucky ones have been able to to start to receive some of their winnings although those with positions linked to electoral…
Will it be a humiliation for Gord? As has been reported here before the date for the Glenrothes by-election was originally fixed for tomorrow because it was hoped that in the US election aftermath then yet another Labour defeat would hardly get noticed. Well things have changed since the date was set and we are now experiencing the renaissance of Gordon following his actions in the bank bailout crisis. Although this has hhad hardly any impact on the voting intention…
Did this make the difference in the key states? One of the interesting conversations I got into at the PB election session last night was on the importance to the election of Obama’s early career as a community organiser – something that many GOP commentators have been quick to deride. For his instinctive understanding of how to mobilise the weakest and most vulnerable members of society has, surely, played a key part in leading such a successful campaign. Looking back…