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Year: 2008

Is Cameron trying to do an Obama?

Is Cameron trying to do an Obama?

What do we think of their new £500k campaign? In almost all the national papers this morning there are large ads from the Conservatives which are aimed, it seems. at building up a supporter base rather than winning votes. There’s a different theme in every newspaper but the objective appears to be the same – “Join us at Conservatives.com”. The message in the Times is about economic competence, green issues get singled out for special attention in the Independent while…

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Peter Smith on an experiment for next Tuesday night

Peter Smith on an experiment for next Tuesday night

Elite Betting and the March 4th Primaries In an earlier thread I mentioned at Mike’s request some possible future PB activities but there was one fairly ambitious idea for which I did not have space. There is no doubt that this site has been a colossal success since it started in March 2004. There are many reasons and we could all list a number of ingredients – Mike, his open approach, the free and willing contributions by many talented and…

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What will the chart look like on Wednesday?

What will the chart look like on Wednesday?

Is Obama really home and dry? Just looking at the chart showing the changes in betting prices set out in terms of implied probabilities and you get a sense of this extraordinary race to be the Democratic standard bearer in the Presidential election on November 5th. But could there still be a sting in the tail? Could the Clintons stage one of their famous come-backs? Could the prospect of the first female president still be on? In Texas they have…

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Labour private poll: “Boris winning the 2nd prefs war”

Labour private poll: “Boris winning the 2nd prefs war”

The secret survey that shows Ken could be in trouble When on Tuesday Ken sought to counter the latest YouGov mayoral figures by revealing party private polling data he set off a disclosure process that has, for the first time I believe, allowed us to look at the full numbers from a Labour survey that was supposed to be secret. And with this election looking very tight a key factor will be how the second preferences split – will they…

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Was this the response where Hillary went wrong?

Was this the response where Hillary went wrong?

Comfort-tmby luvnews Should she have avoided “calling for a pillow” for Obama”? The above thirty second snatch has probably been the most widely criticised part of Hillary’s performance in the debate overnight. It was as though she was trying to make herself look the victim. On the issue at stake, whether she was always asked the first question, commentators have noted that on at least three occasion she jumped into to answer a point without one of the moderators suggesting…

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Did Ken hold back MORI to trump YouGov?

Did Ken hold back MORI to trump YouGov?

The MORI poll he reported is nearly three weeks old I have now got the fieldwork dates and some other details from the private MORI poll for Labour that Ken “pulled out of the hat” as news of the 5% deficit in the YouGov survey came out. The MORI fieldwork started getting on for three weeks ago, on February 8th and went on until the 12th. A sample of 808 Londoners was interviewed by telephone. The survey found on that…

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Will the Cleveland showdown change anything?

Will the Cleveland showdown change anything?

Could Clinton’s sustained attacks impede Obama? The final debate ahead of the critical March 4th primaries in Texas and Ohio has ended with Hillary not managing to make the knock-out blow that she needed to. My view was that she probably won on points – but only by a narrow margin. The questioning by MSNBC’s political team was much tougher than we have seen. At one point I thought that Hillary “had” her opponent when he was pressed about an…

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Ken falls 5% behind Boris in new London poll

Ken falls 5% behind Boris in new London poll

Is the Mayor being hit by all bad publicity? A new YouGov poll for London ITV News has Ken fallen 5% behind Boris in the race for the London Mayoralty. These ae the shares compared with the last proper survey from the firm in December – JOHNSON 44%(nc): LIVINGSTONE 39%(-5): PADDICK 12%(+5) The YouGov boss, Peter Kellner has confirmed to me that the survey took place from Tuesday to Thursday of last week and involved a sample of 1,003. In…

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