This is a table adapted from UK Polling Report showing all the published ICM polls during 2008. Below is a table showing all the ComRes polls, excluding last night’s sensational CON 37%: LAB 36%: LD 17%. We also had in the Observer in the Observer on Sunday the poll from Ipsos-MORI. I’ve not featured its 2008 table because it has gone through a big methodological change. My main observation from the two tables is that ICM is the more stable…
CONSERVATIVES 37% (-6) LABOUR 36% (+4) LIB DEMS 17% (+5) The above figures, now confirmed, show a massive difference compared with the latest ICM and MORI polls which had leads of 15% and 11% respectively. This represents a completely different picture of what is happening between the pollsters. ComRes weight by past vote and apply a strict turn-out filter – factors which tend to help the Tory figures. I assume that with this survey the firm is using its standard…
Can they beat the lawyer who represented Lord Levy The big development in “Green-Gate” was a news conference this afternoon involving the Home Office mole and his solicitor – the head of criminal law at Bindmans and the man who represented Lord Levy. Neil O’May ain’t going to come cheap and judging by the bits of the news conference that we saw he ain’t going to be a push-over either. As the BBC’s Nick Robinson describes it: “Mr Galley’s side…
Are we changing the political terms of trading? Everybody seems to be getting bogged down in the detail and is missing the big point – what Green did has been part and parcel of the political process for generations and it is a nonsense and an outrage that it should be regarded as a crime. James Forsyth sums it up well on the Spectator Coffeehouse blog: “If what Damian Green did was illegal, opposition politicians have been committing illegal acts…
Following in the footsteps of StJohn’s crossword and Rod Crosby’s UK political quiz, please see below an international quiz which should hopefully get a few heads scratched. I won’t be around to comment on answers as they come through, but will aim to be back on later this evening when I’ll present a full set of results. There are no prizes, but as Peter Snow used to say, “it’s just a bit of fun…” 1. Which book features canine characters…
Today’s Balance of Money Index: CON MAJ 54 On Thursday we published the first PB “Balance of Money Index” which seeks to translate current opinion on the betting markets into a single number representing an election outcome. The first one, less than four days ago, pointed to a Tory majority of just 26 seats. Since then there has been the Green arrest and two new opinion polls showing moves to the Conservatives with ICM pointing to a 45% share for…