How will these charts look next year?

With the publication of its December political monitor Ipsos-MORI has produced some charts – a couple of which a reproduced above – showing the big trends.

What’s helpful here is the way the margin of error is featured graphically.

The big question now, of course, is whether there’s more to come for Labour in the “bail-out” trend that started in October or are we going to see a new normality of the Tories just under 40 but four or five points ahead.

Punters still seem to be backing the Tories to get an overall majority and the spreads have only moved 6-8 seats away from the Tories in spite of the poor polls.

Mike Smithson