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Month: November 2008

How much of Populus was down to Scotland?

How much of Populus was down to Scotland?

Does the data support the “heartlands” theory? My apologies for the third post in succession about the Populus poll but it has been the most sensational survey that we’ve seen in months and it does merit close examination. The detail has now been made available and one element sticks out – how well Labour polled in Scotland in the immediate three days after the Glenrothes by election. Just look at the numbers above which I should explain don’t represent individual…

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Did ICM carry out today’s Populus poll?

Did ICM carry out today’s Populus poll?

How come the firms have such different results? Above is the rather anonymous office block in Bedford which houses the ICM calling centre where, more than likely, the field-work for today’s Populus poll in the Times was carried out. “ICM calling centre..”, I can hear you saying,”.. surely some mistake?” No – because the process of doing the telephone interviews is something that Populus usually contracts out and ICM are a leader in this field. There are other similarities as…

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Populus has Tory lead down to 6%

Populus has Tory lead down to 6%

CONSERVATIVES 41% (-4) LABOUR 35% (+5) LIB DEMS 16% (+1) In what is by far and away the best poll for Labour for more than six months the November Populus poll for the Times has last month’s Tory lead of 15% down to just 6%. This is a very big change and means that the pollster is showing a very different picture from ICM which reported at the weekend. Putting these numbers into the UK Polling Report seat calculator and…

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And now for the Barack and George W show….

And now for the Barack and George W show….

Will the smiles continue when the cameras aren’t around? Marf’s cartoon this afternoon is on happenings in Washington DC where in a few hours all eyes will be focussed on the White House where the President and the President-elect will have their first formal meeting. The plan is for Obama and Michele to spend about 90 minutes there and the Obamas will make a tour of the White House. Then the two men will sit down to talk about the…

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Can you spot “Brown’s bailout bounce”?

Can you spot “Brown’s bailout bounce”?

Is John Curtice right about it being a myth? One of the biggest errors that many pundits make is when they compare the numbers from one pollster with another and then conclude that there is a trend. You see this all the time and it is wrong. The six pollsters that regularly carry out voting intention surveys in the UK each have their own bespoke methodology which is unique to them. The only valid comparisons are when you compare like…

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Henry G Manson: Lammy for Mayor?

Henry G Manson: Lammy for Mayor?

Back Lammy to Lead Labour’s London Bid The recent months have seen some interesting little developments that could impact on who will be Labour’s mayoral candidate in London. Ladbrokes have been first off the mark with a very thorough market for who will be the next Mayor of London. Boris Johnson is 5/6 and as much as it pains me to say it, I think this is a value choice. However it is also worth examining the possible runners and…

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Who will be the next Speaker of the House of Commons?

Who will be the next Speaker of the House of Commons?

Who will be dragged to the chair next? When Michael Martin decides to step down as Speaker of the House of Commons, a new mechanism for election to this office will be used for the first time. Following the glut of nominees for the post in 2000, proposals recommended by Tony Benn were modified and adopted by the House Select Committee, whereby MPs will vote by secret ballot, eliminating a candidate who comes last or receives less than 5% of…

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Is Trevor Phillips right about this?

Is Trevor Phillips right about this?

How long until a BME PM? Trevor Phillips, former Chairman of the Comission for Racial Equality, now a Labour member of the GLA and head of the equality watchdog, claimed yesterday in a Radio 4 interview that “institutional racism” would prevent a black or Asian politician from reaching Number 10. He was particularly damning of the unions and the left-leaning think-tanks for supporting the notion of ethnic minority candidates, whilst (in his view) the systems and structures of political parties…

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