Is the narrative so much on his side at the moment?

If you look at the Glenrothes by election betting then there’s little doubt how punters are seeing the Fife by election in the seat next door to Brown’s just two weeks today. Although there’s been some tightening of the Labour price the SNP are still odds on favourite.

Sarah Brown herself was there yesterday and the Times has a wonderfully amusing account of how stage managed it all was.

I find this contest a very difficult one to call. What we need is another poll and there hasn’t been one since the Brown transformation and the switch in the media narrative.

One thing I’m convinced of is that a Labour defeat will have nothing like the impact that was the suggested only a few weeks ago.

The media has decided that the current big political story is of the dramatic comeback of “the man who saved the world financial system” and nothing – not even polls or by election defeats – are going to change that perception.

So a Labour hold in this seat will be proclaimed as confirming the media narrative – a Labour defeat for the large part will be dismissed as not being very important.

This is tough for the opposition parties but then Labour had a tough year when the narrative was against them. These things do switch but my guess is that the Brown second honeymoon could last all the way until next June’s local and Euro elections.

Mike Smithson