But should we listen to Professor King?

The post conference YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph is out putting the Tories up four points to 45% in a survey that that Anthony King says shows that the voters “.. are not yet persuaded by the Tories”. Eh?

A share of 45% is, of course, bigger than what Tony Blair’s Labour got in the landslide of 1997 – maybe King did not have that result to hand?

He is of course an esteemed academic expert and we must take everything he says seriously but his interpretation is surely harsh?

Yes Labour have done well to maintain their position from last week but to interpret it in this way seems very strange indeed. A MORI’s Bob Worcester always says – look at the party shares not the lead.

This is a very good share for the Tories, a quite good share for Labour and a worrying one for the Lib Dems. It is also a conference season poll and we should not get too excited about it – an observation that is missing from King’s piece.

Let’s wait, as I have been saying for weeks, until the conference effect has shaken itself out of the system.

I am due to discuss the post-conference polling on BBC Radio Wales at about 7.40am this morning.

Mike Smithson