But this is a conference season poll.

A new ICM poll for the Guardian is just out and shows a three point increase in the Tory lead. Given that the fieldwork was taken this week that is hardly surprising.

I will be interested to look at the detailed data to see what the gap was before the pollster applied its spiral of silence adjustment. This is where it makes an assumption of how those who won’t would vote based on what they did last time and in recent rimes this has been boosting Labour.

As I’ve been saying for weeks I don’t attach much credence to conference season polling. Let’s wait till the end of the month or early November when all of this has shaken its way out of the system.

Mike Smithson