Overnight buying points to a majority of more than 62 seats

While Labour’s travails over the leadership continue there’s been a further sharp move on the commons seats spread betting markets where political gamblers “trade” the number of MPs the parties will get at the next general election as though they were stocks and shares.

Serious money is being wagered with punters being ready to risk a lot of money.

The numbers in the panel above are with SportingIndex and show a spread of 350-356 on the number of Tory seats. If you think that Cameron will get less than that you “sell” at the lower figures; if you think that they will get more you buy at the higher level.

The amount you win or lose is worked out by multiplying your unit stake level by the difference between what happens and what level you got in at. So the more your prediction is right the more you win and the more your prediction is wrong the more you lose.

The latest buy prices have jumped by three seats and suggest a Tory majority of 62. This is, I believe, the highest level the party has reached in this form of gambling since political spread-betting started in the 1990s.

This can be very expensive if you get it wrong. As I have recalled before a few months ago I met a former Number 10 staffer who had bought Labour at £100 a seat the 332 level just after Gordon Brown’s conference speech in September 2007. This morning he would have to pay £10,600 to close that position down.

My betting. I’ve been building up a Labour sell position but I’m going to stick where I am for the moment. The big betting risk is for Labour’s standing to be transformed by a new leader that could alter the situation dramatically. I do not want to become too exposed.

Mike Smithson